UN report: world losing ground on climate goals, with US cited as a major factor

Compiled from reports by The Manila Times, NBC News and Arab News. See the original articles linked below.

The world is slipping further behind on efforts to limit global warming, according to an annual update from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released on 21 October 2026. The Associated Press account of the report, published by The Manila Times, NBC News and Arab News, names the United States as one of the main reasons for the worsening outlook.

Projected warming

The Manila Times, carrying the AP report, said the update finds that even if every country delivers on its current climate pledges, Earth will probably warm by about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 Fahrenheit) beyond today's temperatures. NBC News reported that this is slightly worse than the projection made a year earlier.

For the year 2100, the AP story as published by the Manila Times puts the expected global temperature at 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels if all pledges are met. Without those pledges, with countries following current policies, the figure is 2.8 degrees. NBC News said both numbers lie beyond the range of 1.5 to 2 degrees set out in the Paris Agreement. Arab News added that the planet is already about 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and that UN officials have acknowledged the 1.5-degree goal can no longer be reached unless carbon is later removed from the atmosphere.

The role of the United States

According to the AP report in the Manila Times, the report attributes the weaker outlook mainly to the formal US exit from the Paris Agreement and to revised estimates of past emissions. It also says US emissions grew in 2025 and made up roughly 70 percent of the total increase among the 124 countries whose emissions went up.

NBC News reported that the US rise was 133 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, which the report links to higher electricity demand and a greater use of coal power. NBC News described the US as the only major economy that increased its carbon pollution last year. Arab News wrote that most other major economies cut their emissions or slowed their growth, a slightly different framing of the same comparison.

The Manila Times said the US policy shift alone is expected to add about 0.1 degrees Celsius to global warming by the end of the century. NBC News reported that scientists say such an increase could expose around 140 million more people to dangerously hot conditions. Arab News said scientists named further consequences including more heat waves, floods and failed harvests.

Outside experts quoted in the AP story, according to the Manila Times and Arab News, argued that the true American effect could be larger than 0.1 degrees, because other nations might reduce their own efforts if the largest historical emitter does less. NBC News said outside experts described the report as scientifically sound.

Reaction and required cuts

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, as reported by the Manila Times, that the world is falling "dangerously short" of its goals. Arab News and the Manila Times both reported that UNEP says global emissions would need to fall 18 percent by 2030 and 69 percent by 2040 to stay on track.

Sources

This article was compiled with AI assistance from the reports listed above and reviewed by GMA before publishing.