Compiled from reports by The Daily Star and Prothom Alo English. See the original articles linked below.
Bangladesh is forecast to post a higher per capita gross domestic product than India this year, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook for October 2026. The Daily Star, in a report dated October 26 that carried a UNB dateline from Dhaka, said the fund estimates Bangladesh's figure at $2,886 for 2026, compared with $2,749 for India.
Both The Daily Star and Prothom Alo English reported that Bangladesh had also moved ahead of India on this measure in 2020, after which India regained the lead. The two outlets described the latest projection as a return to that position for Bangladesh.
Gap in the size of the economies
Per capita GDP is an average of economic output per person, and both outlets stressed that it says little about how large an economy is. The Daily Star reported that India's total GDP is projected at about $4.15 trillion in 2026, against roughly $506.4 billion for Bangladesh, which makes the Indian economy about eight times bigger. Prothom Alo gave the same comparison, describing India's economy as nearly eight times that of Bangladesh.
Prothom Alo added that on a purchasing power parity basis India stays ahead, with about $12,998 per person against about $10,884 for Bangladesh.
Forecast for coming years
Prothom Alo reported that the IMF expects Bangladesh to remain in front in 2027, at $3,219 against $3,036 for India, and to keep a narrow lead in 2028. For 2029 the same outlet reported a projection that puts India back in front, at $3,661 against $3,334.
Growth, inflation and other pressures
The Daily Star said that high inflation and slower growth are weighing on the Bangladeshi economy, and that experts see a wide remaining gap in economic capacity and living standards between the two countries. Prothom Alo likewise said the IMF expects inflation to be higher in Bangladesh than in India this year, which adds pressure on living costs.
According to The Daily Star, Bangladesh's gains over the past two decades have been led mainly by the ready-made garment industry, remittances from workers abroad and a rising share of women in the labour force. Prothom Alo quoted the economist Santosh Mehrotra on the country's growth, noting that manufacturing's share of value added rose from 16.6 percent in 2014 to 22 percent in 2025.
Prothom Alo also linked pressure on Bangladesh to a global energy crisis tied to the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel. It reported that Bangladesh imports about 95 percent of its oil and liquefied natural gas, and that garments account for more than 80 percent of its export earnings, with shipments exposed to disruption on Red Sea and Middle East routes.
Limits of the measure
Prothom Alo noted that per capita GDP does not capture inequality and that exchange rate movements can distort the figures, and said both countries are seeing inequality rise. The Daily Star similarly pointed out that the indicator does not directly measure individual income.
The two outlets agree on the main figures for 2026. The coverage reviewed here does not describe any disagreement between them on the IMF numbers.
Sources
- Bangladesh set to overtake India in per capita GDP in 2026, but lags in economic strength: IMF (The Daily Star, 2026-10-26)
- Bangladesh set to overtake India again in per capita GDP, IMF forecasts (Prothom Alo English, 2026-10-27)
This article was compiled with AI assistance from the reports listed above and reviewed by GMA before publishing.