Compiled from reports by iHeartRadio and OutKick. See the original articles linked below.
The release of Grand Theft Auto VI on November 19 could reduce output in the United States by roughly $1 billion in a single day, according to an estimate reported by iHeartRadio and by OutKick, a Fox News sports and culture outlet. Both outlets published their reports on October 20.
Where the estimate comes from
iHeartRadio attributed the figure to José García Montalvo, an economist at Pompeu Fabra University. According to iHeartRadio, he expects about 1.5 million Americans to skip work around the launch, producing a productivity dip of about 2 percent and losses near $1 billion. iHeartRadio reported that men aged 18 to 30 are expected to account for most of the absences and that the technology sector may be affected most.
OutKick reported that experts predict the release could cost the US economy about $1 billion in one day. Its author, Austin Perry, wrote that many people have already scheduled sick days for November 19 and 20. OutKick's author also said that no recent game, including Halo and Call of Duty, has caused this kind of disruption.
Time-off requests
iHeartRadio cited data from the human resources platform BambooHR showing that requests for paid time off on November 19 are running 9 to 17 percent above recent averages. According to iHeartRadio, the company said its data is consistent across the measurements it can make, but that it cannot show the game is the only cause.
The game and its publisher
According to iHeartRadio, the game launches on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S one week before Thanksgiving. The outlet reported that much of the revenue flows to Rockstar North in Edinburgh, Scotland, and that Take-Two chief executive Strauss Zelnick expects more than $1 billion in operating cash flow this fiscal year, driven mainly by the game.
iHeartRadio also reported sales projections: Newzoo estimates at least 37 million copies sold in the opening week, with global first-week retail bookings that could reach $4.5 billion. The outlet said the franchise has sold nearly 475 million copies, that pre-orders exceed 5.2 million, and that a full playthrough takes roughly 80 hours.
OutKick reported that the game's release followed a long development period, a series of delays, leaks and a controversy over a digital release. It added that Rockstar is promoting the game in Miami, where the Miami Heat will wear Vice City-themed jerseys and play on a custom court the night before the release. OutKick noted that Vice City, the game's fictional setting, parodies South Florida. Its author also wrote that the game may struggle to meet the high expectations built up during the long wait.
Scope of the figures
The two outlets differ in emphasis. iHeartRadio gives the method behind the estimate, including the 1.5 million absences and the 2 percent productivity dip, while OutKick presents the $1 billion figure as an expert prediction and focuses on scheduled sick days and the marketing push. Neither report, as described above, presents the figure as an official forecast.
Sources
- Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Could Cost US Economy $1 Billion In Lost Productivity (iHeartRadio, 2026-10-20)
- 'Grand Theft Auto VI' release set to cost US economy staggering amount as gamers plan PTO days (OutKick, 2026-10-20)
This article was compiled with AI assistance from the reports listed above and reviewed by GMA before publishing.